Groundwater Resilience in the Face of Climate Change: A Look at the Eagle Lake Basin
Groundwater sustainability is the key to water resources resilience.
The Eagle Lake Basin in Northeastern California is a high-desert watershed where alpine meadows, volcanic uplands, and sagebrush landscapes converge. Beneath this scenic landscape lies a critical, often overlooked resource: groundwater. As climate change shifts precipitation patterns, snowpack dynamics, and surface water availability across the West, the resilience of this groundwater—and the communities and ecosystems that depend on it—faces growing uncertainty.
We recently applied the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM) to investigate how climate change might impact groundwater recharge in the Eagle Lake Basin. What we found underscores the importance of integrating geospatial technology and climate science into long-term water management strategies for rural and resource-dependent communities.
Why Eagle Lake Matters?
Eagle Lake is a desert-terminal lake, fed primarily by Pine Creek and surrounded by federal lands, working forests, ranches, and small tribal and residential communities. While the area remains largely undeveloped, groundwater supports nearly 100% of the basin’s community and domestic water use, as well as agricultural operations critical to the local economy.
Although the region is not currently designated as a high-priority basin under California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), its groundwater-reliant beneficial uses—municipal supply and agriculture—are vulnerable to long-term climate shifts.
Past conditions...
Mean Annual Recharge (mm) for the water year 1960 for the watersheds of the Eagle Lake Basin.
Groundwater recharge capacity was historically more diffuse across the landscape, supported in part by the combined effect of greater average annual precipitation following as snowpack together with cooler average temperatures over the course of the year, allowing for percolation into the porous volcanic geologic formations and quaternary deposits in the meadows of the Eagle Lake Basin.
Future recharge…
Mean Annual Recharge (mm) for the water year 2040 for the watersheds of the Eagle Lake Basin.
Groundwater recharge capacity can be predicted to be less distributed across the landscape, concentrating in the high elevations of the Pine Creek Watershed headwaters in the southeastern portion of the Eagle Lake Basin near Lassen Volcanic National Park and the Caribou Wilderness.
What Climate Models Tell Us
Using the BCMv8 model and LOCA-downscaled climate projections (RCP 4.5 scenario), we simulated potential changes in groundwater recharge through the mid-21st century.
Key findings:
Upper Pine Creek Watershed, characterized by volcanic geology and expansive meadows, remains the primary recharge zone. This area is critical to future groundwater resilience.
Recharge capacity in lower and more arid areas is projected to decline or stabilize, meaning higher-elevation recharge zones will bear more responsibility for sustaining the basin’s aquifers.
Seasonal snowpack—already declining—is expected to peak earlier and contribute less to spring runoff, reducing opportunities for deep infiltration and recharge.
Implications for Water and Land Management
While some uncertainty remains, the modeling reveals actionable insights:
✅ Identify and protect high-recharge areas in upper watershed zones.
✅ Promote land management practices that enhance infiltration, such as wet meadow restoration and controlled grazing.
✅ Prepare communities for shifts in water availability through conservation, reuse, and decentralized water strategies.
Most importantly, this research highlights the need for a “Total Water Management” approach that recognizes the full hydrologic cycle—from snowpack to soil moisture to groundwater discharge—as interconnected. Community water planning must account not only for present-day demands but also for long-term groundwater viability under changing climatic conditions.
Next Steps: From Modeling to Management
This work is just the beginning. Future research should:
Incorporate multiple emissions scenarios and hydrologic variables (e.g., discharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration).
Support the development of a basin-scale water budget to guide planning.
Engage local landowners, agencies, and tribal governments in developing a shared vision for groundwater resilience.
For small and rural communities in California and beyond, the time to act is now. By pairing geospatial modeling tools with locally grounded planning, we can build lasting strategies for climate adaptation and natural resource stewardship.
Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., and Stern, M.A., 2021, The basin characterization model—A regional water balance software package: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods 6–H1, 85 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ tm6H1.
Stern, M.A., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., and Seymour, W.A., 2024, Future Climate and Hydrology from Twenty Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA) Scenarios and the Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9K23J25.
O'Connor, T., D. Rodrigo, AND A. Cannan. Total Water Management: The New Paradigm for Urban Water Resources Planning. In Proceedings, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress 2010, Challenges of Change, Providence, RI, May 16 - 20, 2010. Environmental & Water Resources Institute (EWRI) of ASCE, Reston, VA, 3251, (2010).